Gold Price Prediction for 19th to 25th May ‘25 – Should You Save Money in Gold?

Gold Prices in Decline?

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Gold continued to decline last week, falling toward $3180 and marking a sharp weekly loss of over 4%, its biggest since November 2024.

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The precious metal has now shed over $300 from its record high of $3500 set in April, as safe-haven demand weakens and technical selling accelerates. 

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Risk sentiment improved last week after the US and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days, while geopolitical tensions remained muted as India-Pakistan and Middle Eastern risks stabilised. 

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After a period of conflicting reports and diplomatic deadlock, Ukrainian and Russian officials finally opened direct talks for the first time since 2022. 

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Moreover, Moody's Ratings agency downgraded the US's sovereign debt credit rating after the market close on Friday. The agency lowered U.S. debt to Aa1 from Aaa, citing rising interest costs and unsustainable debt growth. 

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At the same time, it revised its outlook on the U.S. to "stable" instead of "negative." According to Moody's, the US is facing rising debt funding costs that far exceed those of similar government debt loads. 

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Moody's specifically highlighted US interest obligations "that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns."

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Gold Rate Forecast

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Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has strengthened market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing the dollar lower and reducing Treasury yields—factors that typically support non-yielding assets like gold.

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Due to opposing forces, gold prices may continue to encounter challenges. However, significant losses below current levels appear unlikely; despite recent optimism surrounding trade and geopolitics, uncertainty remains the dominant theme among participants.

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As of May 2025, China's economic indicators present a mixed picture, reflecting both resilience and ongoing challenges. 

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Industrial output in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, slightly slowing from March's 7.7% but still surpassing expectations. This data suggests that China's manufacturing sector remains robust despite external pressures.

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However, retail sales growth decelerated to 5.1% in April from 5.9% in March, indicating that consumer demand is softening. This slowdown in consumption could be attributed to lingering uncertainties in the domestic economy. 

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The property sector continues to face significant headwinds, with investment declining by 10.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025. This downturn reflects ongoing challenges in real estate, a critical component of China's economy. 

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In summary, while China's industrial sector shows signs of strength, challenges in consumer spending and real estate persist. The recent easing of trade tensions provides a temporary boost, but sustained recovery will depend on addressing structural issues within the economy. 

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Should You Save Money in Gold?

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Gold could continue to struggle, with prices having room to move lower this week as the market adopts a wait-and-see approach amid shifting investor sentiment in the global marketplace. 

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Last week’s selloff marks the biggest drop since mid-June 2021 and is slightly steeper than the decline seen in November after President Donald Trump won the presidential election.

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Gold is now quickly racking up losses and looks set to be facing some more downturns. Easing geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and the Fed likely to keep its monetary policy unchanged for longer, all bearish elements for the gold price, are eating away at its momentum. 

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From a technical perspective, the yellow metal remains under pressure heading into the weekend, trading near $3180 after failing to hold above the psychological $3200 mark. The daily chart reveals a bearish double top pattern, signalling a potential trend reversal from April’s record highs. 

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The neckline of this pattern aligns closely with the $3160–$3150 support zone, which is also reinforced by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3170. A decisive break below this zone could open the door for a deeper correction toward the $3000 (~₹86000) handle.

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Disclaimer: The recommendations and opinions shared by experts regarding the stock market and other asset classes are their own. These views do not reflect the official stance or position of Jar.

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